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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-09-11 10:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 800 WTPZ23 KNHC 110834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 123.1W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 123.1W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.5N 126.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 128.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.2N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.2N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 123.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Paul Graphics
2018-09-11 04:47:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 02:47:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 02:47:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-09-11 04:46:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 317 WTPZ43 KNHC 110246 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 Paul remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the associated deep convection limited to the western portion of the circulation. The center of the system is completely exposed and the Dvorak classifications have decreased from all agencies. Based on that data, Paul is now downgraded to a tropical depression with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Although the wind shear is expected to lessen during the next couple of days, Paul will soon cross the 26 deg C isotherm and it will be headed for even cooler waters and a drier airmass during the next few days. These conditions support continued weakening, and Paul will likely become a remnant low in a couple of days or less. The depression has turned toward the west-northwest, with the initial motion estimated to be 300/8 kt. A gradual turn toward the west is expected during the next few days as the cyclone becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 21.6N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 22.6N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 22.9N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 23.2N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 23.2N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Paul (EP3/EP182018)
2018-09-11 04:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 the center of Paul was located near 21.6, -122.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Paul Public Advisory Number 11
2018-09-11 04:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 319 WTPZ33 KNHC 110245 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Paul Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 ...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 122.0W ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Paul was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 122.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for a couple of days. A turn to the west is expected by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Paul is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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