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Summary for Tropical Storm Paul (EP3/EP182018)
2018-09-10 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAUL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 the center of Paul was located near 21.3, -121.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paul Public Advisory Number 10
2018-09-10 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 090 WTPZ33 KNHC 102033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paul Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 ...PAUL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 121.2W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paul was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 121.2 West. Paul is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The tropical storm is expected to move west-northwestward starting tonight and continuing through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected and Paul is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight. The system is expected to become a remnant low by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos
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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Advisory Number 10
2018-09-10 22:09:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 310 WTPZ23 KNHC 102009 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 121.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 121.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 120.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.2N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.9N 127.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 121.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/RAMOS
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Tropical Storm Paul Graphics
2018-09-10 16:39:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 14:39:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 14:39:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-09-10 16:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 734 WTPZ43 KNHC 101437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 Paul continues to have its low-level center displaced on the northeast side of the main area of deep convection. This convection is not well organized and there is little or no evidence of banding features. The current intensity estimate remains 35 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB along with an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS. Over the next few days, Paul will be moving into a drier air mass and over a cooler ocean. This should cause weakening, and the system if forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 72 hours, if not sooner There is significant spread in the center fixes, so the initial motion is a rather uncertain 320/9 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest is forecast due to a mid-level ridge the north of Paul. Later in the period, the increasingly shallow cyclonic circulation should turn more to the west, following the low-level flow. The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC track an close to the correct model consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 20.8N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 22.7N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 23.5N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 23.8N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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