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Tropical Storm Paul Graphics
2018-09-10 04:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 02:32:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 02:32:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-09-10 04:31:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 942 WTPZ43 KNHC 100231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 Paul is looking very ragged this evening. The low-level center has become completely exposed, with the nearest deep convection displaced about 70 n mi to its southwest. The intensity has been held at 40 kt, deferring to earlier ASCAT data which showed a wide swath of 35-40 kt winds. Given the structure of Paul, any intensification seems very unlikely, so gradual weakening is now forecast through the end of the period. By day 4, a combination of cold SSTs and dry, stable air should cause the cyclone to become a remnant low. The new NHC forecast shows faster weakening than before, and is now closer to the intensity consensus through 120 h. The low-level swirl that makes up most of Paul has wobbled a bit this evening, but a longer-term motion estimate is still northwestward, or 320/9 kt. The global models are in good agreement that Paul will continue northwestward for another day or so, before gradually turning westward as it weakens and eventually becomes a remnant low. No significant changes were made to the track forecast, which remains very near the multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 19.4N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 20.4N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 21.2N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 22.4N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 23.1N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 23.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-09-10 04:30:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 606 FOPZ13 KNHC 100230 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 90 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 20N 120W 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Paul (EP3/EP182018)
2018-09-10 04:30:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAUL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 9 the center of Paul was located near 19.4, -119.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paul Public Advisory Number 7
2018-09-10 04:30:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 565 WTPZ33 KNHC 100230 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paul Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 ...PAUL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 119.4W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paul was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 119.4 West. Paul is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through mid-week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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