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Tropical Depression Paul Graphics
2018-09-11 10:38:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 08:38:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 08:38:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-09-11 10:35:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 524 WTPZ43 KNHC 110835 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Paul Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 Paul's surface circulation continues to be decoupled well to the east of a rather shapeless convective mass that persists only as a result of intermittent bursts of deep convection. The cyclone's intensity is held at depression strength and is a compromise of the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates. Within the next 12 hours, Paul will be moving into a stable, drier air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures. This should support further weakening, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, which is indicated in the large-scale models and the statistical intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt, within the steering current produced by a mid-level ridge extending westward over the eastern Pacific from the Baja California peninsula. A slow turn westward is forecast in 36 hours as the weakening cyclone becomes vertically more shallow and is steered by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast is again adjusted to the south of the previous package to conform more with the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 21.9N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 22.5N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 22.8N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 23.0N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 23.2N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 23.2N 132.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression Paul (EP3/EP182018)
2018-09-11 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED PAUL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEK... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 the center of Paul was located near 21.9, -123.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Paul Public Advisory Number 12
2018-09-11 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 937 WTPZ33 KNHC 110834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Paul Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018 ...POORLY ORGANIZED PAUL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 123.1W ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Paul was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 123.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for a couple of days. A turn to the west is expected by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Paul is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-09-11 10:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 945 FOPZ13 KNHC 110834 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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