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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-10 10:45:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 630 WTPZ43 KNHC 100845 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 Paul's poorly defined surface circulation remains displaced well to the east of an intermittent burst of deep convection. A 0448 UTC ASCAT-A pass covering the western semicircle showed only 30 kt winds. Based on the scatterometer pass, and a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier 0228 UTC SATCON analysis of 37 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly shear impeding the eastern side of the cyclone. The Decay SHIPS intensity model shows the shear diminishing within the next 24 hours or so, however, Paul will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable thermodynamic environment. Therefore, weakening is forecast in 36 hours, or less, and Paul is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus models. The exposed surface circulation continues to move a bit erratically this morning, but the 12 hour motion is an uncertain northwestward, or 320/8 kt. Paul should continue to move within the mid-level steering flow produced by a ridge to the north through day 3, then a turn westward is indicated as the vertically shallower cyclone moves within the low-level trades. The NHC track forecast is an update of the last one, and agrees with the various consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 20.1N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 20.8N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 22.5N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 23.4N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z 23.6N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 23.6N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-09-10 10:43:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 842 FOPZ13 KNHC 100843 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Paul (EP3/EP182018)
2018-09-10 10:43:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAUL WEAKER THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 the center of Paul was located near 20.1, -119.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paul Public Advisory Number 8
2018-09-10 10:43:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 756 WTPZ33 KNHC 100843 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paul Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 ...PAUL WEAKER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 119.9W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paul was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 119.9 West. Paul is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Paul is expected to become a remnant low toward the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-09-10 10:43:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 757 WTPZ23 KNHC 100843 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0900 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.9W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 119.9W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 119.6W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.8N 120.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.5N 125.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.4N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 23.6N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.6N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 119.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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