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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-09-10 04:30:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 566 WTPZ23 KNHC 100230 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.4W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.4W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.4N 120.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.2N 121.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.4N 125.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.1N 128.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.5N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 119.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Paul Graphics
2018-09-09 22:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 20:33:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 21:46:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-09-09 22:31:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 880 WTPZ43 KNHC 092031 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 ASCAT data from shortly before 1800 UTC indicated that Paul was slightly stronger than previously estimated, with several 35-40 kt vectors observed in the southeast quadrant. Based on this data, the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. In an effort to maintain some continuity, and since the ASCAT data nearly supports 45 kt, very slight strengthening is still forecast over the next 24 h, but little change in strength is realistically expected. Beginning in a day or two, a combination of dry, stable air, and decreasing SSTs should cause Paul to gradually weaken, eventually causing the cyclone to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but is still near the high end of the intensity guidance. It is certainly possible Paul could weaken sooner than currently indicated. Paul has sped up slightly but is still moving northwestward, now at around 9 kt. Almost no change has been made to the official track forecast. Paul should continue moving northwestward for the next day or so, before gradually turning toward the west as the weakening cyclone becomes increasingly steered by low-level easterly flow to the north. The track guidance is in reasonably good agreement through about 72 h, at which point there are differences mainly related to how fast the cyclone will weaken. The NHC forecast remains close to HCCA and the other consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 18.5N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 19.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 20.5N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 21.4N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 21.9N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 22.8N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 23.5N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-09-09 22:31:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 877 FOPZ13 KNHC 092031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 59 29(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 20N 120W 50 5 18(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 120W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Paul (EP3/EP182018)
2018-09-09 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAUL SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT LITTLE FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 9 the center of Paul was located near 18.5, -118.7 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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