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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2020-11-07 21:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 072053 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 3(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) 5(24) 2(26) 2(28) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 21(24) 14(38) 3(41) 2(43) 1(44) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 3( 3) 36(39) 17(56) 4(60) 1(61) X(61) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) 18(49) 4(53) 1(54) X(54) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 35(36) 17(53) 4(57) X(57) 1(58) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 1 3( 4) 28(32) 16(48) 5(53) 2(55) 1(56) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 4(24) 1(25) 1(26) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 1 2( 3) 12(15) 18(33) 9(42) 4(46) 1(47) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) 1(17) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 29(41) 13(54) 2(56) 1(57) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) 1(19) X(19) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 19(22) 11(33) 2(35) 1(36) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 19(39) 4(43) 3(46) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 12(22) 6(28) 4(32) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 4(22) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 4(17) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 5(23) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 4( 4) 19(23) 6(29) 2(31) X(31) 1(32) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 11(12) 18(30) 3(33) 1(34) X(34) 1(35) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 35(36) 14(50) 2(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) ANDROS 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) CIENFUEGOS 34 18 3(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) 1(24) X(24) CAMAGUEY 34 23 10(33) X(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 30
2020-11-07 21:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 072053 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO GOLDEN BEACH...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY...AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND WEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO BONITA BEACH FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 80.7W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 80.7W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 81.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.6N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.3N 79.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 79.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 81.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.7N 82.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.1N 83.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 80.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-07 19:04:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 18:04:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 18:04:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-11-07 19:00:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071800 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Special Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 This special advisory is being issued to update the first 36 h of the intensity forecast of Eta. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a better defined center north of the Cayman Islands with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an initial intensity of 50 kt, along with a central pressure of 994 mb. The updated intensity forecast shows a little more intensification during the first 12 h, although it is unclear how much intensification may occur due to strong vertical shear and interaction with a developing upper-level low nearby. No changes were made to the forecast track. The first 36 h of the wind radii were adjusted for the new intensity forecast. Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 100 PM EST (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life- threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected today and Sunday in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected by late Sunday in the Florida Keys and along portions of the southeast Florida coast, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere in portions of southern and central Florida beginning Sunday night, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be needed later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1800Z 20.0N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 29
2020-11-07 18:59:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 071759 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Special Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ETA HAS STRENGTHENED SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 81.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay * The Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida east coast north of Golden Beach Florida to the Brevard/Volusia county line * Florida west coast north of Chokoloskee to Englewood * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 81.1 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east-northeast to northeast motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move away from the Cayman Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or south Florida Sunday night and Monday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected through Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday morning: Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-3 ft Florida Keys...2-3 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-3 ft North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands this afternoon and evening, in the warning area sin Cuba tonight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday and Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight and Sunday and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday or early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday night over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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