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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-11-05 03:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050236 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 Odalys has devolved into a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk of the deep convection displaced to the northeast of the now fully exposed low-level circulation center. The initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB. A 04/2142 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 40 kt also supports this intensity. Odalys is now moving west-northwestward, or 295/09 kt. The cyclone is expected to gradually turn more westward during the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west as Odalys degenerates into a shallow low pressure system. By 48 hours and beyond, the remnant low is forecast to move west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of low-level northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple-consensus track model, TVCE. The current southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear of near 30 kt is forecast to steadily increase to 40 kt during the next 72 hours. Sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 26 deg C will also help hasten the weakening process during that time, resulting in Odalys becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours, followed by dissipation in 96 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the simple-consensus intensity models IVCN and ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.1N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.7N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.9N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 18.6N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 17.9N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z 17.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z 16.2N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Odalys (EP5/EP202020)
2020-11-05 03:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ODALYS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY... As of 7:00 PM PST Wed Nov 4 the center of Odalys was located near 18.1, -121.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 6
2020-11-05 03:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 050235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ODALYS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVERNIGHT... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 121.7W ABOUT 830 MI...1340 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 121.7 West. Odalys is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Odalys is forecast to gradually slow down and turn westward on Thursday, and move west-southwestward by this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday, and Odalys is expected to become a remnant low by early Friday and dissipate over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-11-05 03:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050235 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 1 13(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-11-05 03:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 050235 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 121.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 70SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 121.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 121.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 123.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 124.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.6N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.9N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 121.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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