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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics

2020-11-04 21:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 20:47:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 20:47:49 GMT

Tags: graphics storm tropical eta

Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 17

2020-11-04 21:46:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 042046 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 Eta continues to weaken as it moves from Nicaragua into Honduras. There is little convection left near the center, and the strongest convection remains in bands well removed from the center. As before, there are no wind observations available near the center of Eta at this time, so the initial intensity is reduced to a uncertain 35 kt. The initial motion is westward or 275/6. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west- northwestward track during the next 24 h or so. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough moving over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause Eta or is remnants to turn northward and then northeastward, Then, by 120 h, the cyclone is likely to move northward or northwestward on the eastern side of the trough as it cuts off into a closed low. The track guidance remains in reasonable agreement with this scenario, However, there remains some spread on when and where the various turns will occur, and there has also been an eastward shift in the guidance envelope after 36 h. The new forecast track is shifted to the east of the previous track after 36 h, and at 72 and 96 h it lies a little to the west of the various consensus models, Eta will continue to weaken while it crosses Honduras, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low before it reaches the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Re-development is expected once the center is over the water. However, interaction with the aforementioned trough could result in a structure that is more subtropical or hybrid, as suggested by the UKMET, than a classical tropical cyclone, as suggested by the ECMWF. The new intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast and go with a gradual intensification that follows the general trend of the model guidance. However, the intensity forecast again lies a little below the intensity consensus. Although it is weakening, Eta will continue to produce heavy rainfall and flooding over portions of Central America. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/0600Z 14.2N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1800Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 16.5N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 17.7N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 07/0600Z 18.8N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2020-11-04 21:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 042046 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 2(15) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number speed wind storm

Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)

2020-11-04 21:45:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ETA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN A FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO HONDURAS... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Nov 4 the center of Eta was located near 13.9, -85.7 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical eta

Tropical Storm Odalys Graphics

2020-11-04 21:37:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 20:37:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 20:37:54 GMT

Tags: graphics storm tropical tropical storm

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