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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-11-04 21:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 The center of Odalys has become easier to find this afternoon. A well-defined low-level center has become apparent on visible satellite imagery, about 50 nm southwest of the deepest convection. Despite this somewhat disheveled appearance, a series of ASCAT passes earlier this afternoon found winds of 35-40 kt in a band north of the center. Allowing for a bit of instrument undersampling, and blending the latest SAB and TAFB satellite estimates, the initial intensity was raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory. Odalys continues to move northwestward this afternoon at 315/15 kt. The track forecast philosophy has remained largely unchanged. The storm will continue to head northwest in the short-term, situated between a deep-layer ridge over Mexico and a mid to upper-level trough located to its northeast. This same trough will likely generate high enough vertical wind shear to cause the low and mid level centers of Odalys to completely separate in the next 24 h, resulting in the low-level center of Odalys to bend west and then west-southwest as it comes under the influence of the low-level easterly trade winds. The latest track guidance is in good agreement on this evolution with only minor speed differences after Odalys becomes a shallow vortex and only small adjustments were made to the official forecast track. Odalys may maintain its current intensity over the next 12 h if it is able to maintain active downshear convection. Thereafter, the southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase above 35 kt in the latest GFS-based SHIPS guidance. This should import very dry mid-level air near the center and will likely choke off any remaining convective bursts. Odalys is expected to become a shallow remnant low on Friday afternoon, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.7N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-11-04 21:35:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 042035 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 1 8( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Odalys (EP5/EP202020)
2020-11-04 21:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ODALYS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG... As of 1:00 PM PST Wed Nov 4 the center of Odalys was located near 17.7, -120.7 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 5
2020-11-04 21:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 042035 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ODALYS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 120.7W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 120.7 West. Odalys is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. The tropical storm is forecast to gradually slow down and turn westward by tomorrow and west-southwestward by this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin tomorrow with Odalys expected to become a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-11-04 21:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 042034 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 120.7W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 120.7W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 120.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 120.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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