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Summary for Tropical Storm Odalys (EP5/EP202020)
2020-11-05 21:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ODALYS WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TOMORROW... As of 1:00 PM PST Thu Nov 5 the center of Odalys was located near 18.5, -123.6 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 9
2020-11-05 21:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 052052 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ODALYS WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 123.6W ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 123.6 West. Odalys is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight with a turn toward to the west-southwest beginning tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next couple of days and Odalys is expected to become a remnant low this evening or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-11-05 21:52:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052052 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 123.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-11-05 16:08:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 133 WTPZ25 KNHC 051508 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 CORRECTED TO HAVE 72 H POINT AS DISSIPATED THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.9W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 122.9W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 122.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-11-05 16:04:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051503 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 AM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 Corrected to say dissipated for the 72 h forecast. Odalys appears to be losing the battle against high vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment as an overnight convective burst has been sheared off to the northeast. Only a small region of cloud tops colder than -60 C remains about 100 nm away from the exposed low-level circulation center. The latest satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB have decreased and it is possible that Odalys has already started weakening. However, the current intensity will be held at 45 kt for this advisory out of respect for the overnight ASCAT data. The ongoing strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, and dry air will continue to envelop the circulation. Marginal sea surface temperatures of 26 C may be able to support occasional convective bursts, but these should be short lived and disorganized, and the low-level wind field should gradually spin down without any organized convection. The latest intensity forecast shows Odalys becoming a remnant low by 36 h, but this may occur sooner if convection does not refire near the center. Odalys is gradually bending more westward at 285/6 kt as it decouples from convection associated with the mid-level center and begins to be influenced primarily by the low-level steering flow. A turn due west and then west-southwest is expected over the next 24 h following the northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one and is near the track guidance consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.3N 122.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 17.5N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 16.8N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z 16.2N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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