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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2020-11-07 16:00:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 076 FONT14 KNHC 071500 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 4(14) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 3(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 2(18) 3(21) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 3(19) 2(21) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 2(27) 1(28) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 14(41) 1(42) 1(43) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 30(37) 13(50) 1(51) X(51) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 23(25) 14(39) 1(40) 1(41) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 23(26) 13(39) 1(40) 1(41) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 19(29) 10(39) 3(42) X(42) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 11(29) 4(33) 1(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 26(42) 3(45) 1(46) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 3(32) 1(33) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 28(35) 4(39) 2(41) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 5(29) 3(32) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 6(22) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 6(18) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 6(23) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 6(15) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) 6(31) 1(32) 1(33) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 11(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 8(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 21(22) 2(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) GRAND CAYMAN 34 8 X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-11-07 15:59:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 071459 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIEN INLET TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. * FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FLORIDA TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 83.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 81.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Odalys Graphics
2020-11-05 21:56:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 20:56:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 20:56:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-11-05 21:54:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052054 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 Deep convection associated with Odalys has largely dissipated over the past 6-9 h with just a remnant swirl of low clouds surrounding the center. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB continue to decrease and a recent ASCAT pass confirmed that the wind field has begun to spin down, with maximum sustained winds near 35 kt. As anticipated, the combination of high southwesterly vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt and dry mid-level air around 40 percent as diagnosed from ECMWF-SHIPS guidance has lead to a collapse of deep central convection. Even though sea surface temperatures under Odalys remain marginally warm around 26 C, vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air are forecast to become even more hostile over the next 24 h. Therefore, the latest official forecast now anticipates Odalys to become a remnant low in 24 h. Degeneration to a remnant low could occur as quickly as this evening if organized deep convection does not redevelop soon. The initial motion of the cyclone is estimated near 280/6 kt, and a due westward motion is expected within the next few hours. Odalys is now a shallow cyclone, and will primarily be steered by low-level northeasterly trade wind flow, gradually bending from a west to southwest heading over the next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast track shows a slightly sharper turn to the the southwest now that the cyclone has become more shallow, but the official track remains near the track guidance consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.5N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-11-05 21:53:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052053 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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