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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-04 15:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA WINDS DECREASING BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 9:00 AM CST Wed Nov 4 the center of Eta was located near 13.9, -85.2 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 16
2020-11-04 15:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 041457 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ETA WINDS DECREASING BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 85.2W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Laguna de Perlas. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 85.2 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected later today through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through early this afternoon, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the next couple of days, and Eta should become a tropical depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for a few more hours, and near the center of Eta for several more hours. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: An additional 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.. Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 30 inches (760 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) The Cayman Islands: An additional 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated storm totals of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica and Southern Haiti: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should gradually decrease today. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-11-04 15:57:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 041456 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 85.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 85.2W AT 04/1500Z...INLAND AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.9W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 86.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.9N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 88.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.0N 88.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 86.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 84.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 85.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Odalys Graphics
2020-11-04 15:46:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 14:46:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Nov 2020 15:31:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-04 15:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041444 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 Over the last 6 h Odalys has exhibited a bursting pattern with cloud tops colder than -70C occuring to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. The center itself has been a bit difficult to locate overnight but is estimated to be on the southwest edge of this recent convective activity. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB were 35 kt and 45 kt respectively, but the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt for this advisory out of respect for overnight ASCAT data that supported the lower value and the fact that the structure of the cyclone hasn't changed much since then. Odalys is now moving to the northwest with a similar forward motion 315/14 kt. This motion is expected to continue in the short term as the storm is being steered between a mid-level ridge centered over Northern Mexico to its northeast and a deep-layer trough centered to its northwest. After 24 h, Odalys is expect to become a shallow system as its convection gets stripped away by the deep layer trough. Its track will bend back west and then west-southwest as it comes under the influence of northeasterly trade wind flow associated with a low-level anticyclone off the southwestern US coast. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement of this evolution and only minor modifications were made to the forecast track owing to the slightly further north initial position. While small fluctuations in intensity associated with periodic convective bursts are possible today, southwesterly vertical wind shear is already increasing over the system and will soon be importing very dry mid-level air over the low-level circulation. This will ultimately lead to the tropical storm's demise as it moves over marginally warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast was held at the current intensity for the first 24 h with gradual weakening thereafter. Odalys is expected to become a remnant low by Friday and dissipate entirely by the end of the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 16.9N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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