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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48

2017-09-28 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 280232 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-28 04:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA HEADED OUT TO SEA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 the center of Maria was located near 36.8, -71.5 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 48

2017-09-28 04:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280231 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 ...MARIA HEADED OUT TO SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 71.5W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 71.5 West. Maria is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue overnight. Maria is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward to eastward on Thursday through Friday. On the forecast track, Maria will move away from the U.S. east coast through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 48

2017-09-28 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280231 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 71.5W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 280SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 71.5W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.9N 70.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.9N 67.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.4N 62.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 44.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 240SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 51.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 71.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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