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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics
2017-09-30 04:40:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2017 02:40:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2017 02:40:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 56
2017-09-30 04:38:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 56 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Maria continues to gradually lose tropical cyclone characteristics as cool and dry air entrains into the western side of the circulation. However, a small area of convection remains to the east of the center, and recent microwave sounding data indicates the cyclone still has a warm core. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a combination of subjective satellite intensity estimates and the CIMSS satellite consensus technique. Maria is now expected to become extratropical in about 24 h, and the system is likely to be absorbed by a larger non-tropical low after the 48-h point. The initial motion is 070/27. Maria is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and should continue to move quickly east-northeast for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The NHC forecast, which is changed little from the previous advisory, incorporates guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 38.6N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 40.1N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 42.7N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1200Z 45.6N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0000Z 48.0N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 56
2017-09-30 04:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 300237 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-30 04:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 29 the center of Maria was located near 38.6, -53.9 with movement ENE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 56
2017-09-30 04:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300234 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 56 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 ...MARIA MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.6N 53.9W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 53.9 West. Maria is moving toward the east-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, Maria is expected to become an extratropical low by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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