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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 49
2017-09-28 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 280835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017 ...MARIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 71.0W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM NW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 71.0 West. Maria is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and the storm is expected to accelerate eastward through tonight. A turn back toward the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Friday. On the forecast track, Maria will move away from the U.S. east coast and pass well to the south of Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49
2017-09-28 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 280835 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Advisory Number 49
2017-09-28 10:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280833 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 71.0W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 160SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 71.0W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 71.3W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.8N 68.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.0N 64.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 180SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 38.0N 59.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 200SE 190SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.0N 53.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 230SE 220SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 46.4N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 240SE 240SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 71.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-28 04:37:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2017 02:37:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2017 02:37:52 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 48
2017-09-28 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280233 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017 Maria continues to have convective bands over the eastern and northeastern portions of its circulation, with drier air inhibiting convection over much of its western semicircle. Dvorak intensity estimates are below hurricane strength, but this has been the case for the last couple of days, where aircraft observations showed the system stronger than indicated by the satellite-based estimates. Since the cloud pattern has not deteriorated significantly from earlier today, Maria is kept as a hurricane for now. Only gradual weakening is expected since SSTs do not cool much until after 48 hours, and baroclinic processes may help maintain intensity for another day or so thereafter. Later in the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should become absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the far northeastern north Atlantic. The 72- and 96-hour forecast positions, intensity, and wind radii were coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Maria is gradually turning to the right as it nears the mid-latitude westerlies, and the motion estimate is now 040/6 kt. Over the next few days, the cyclone should accelerate eastward to east-northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough moving through the northeastern United Sates and off the northeast United States coast. There continues to be significant along-track, i.e. speed, differences between the ECMWF and GFS models later in the period, and the official forecast is nearly an average of these 2 model tracks. This is also close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 36.8N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 36.9N 70.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 36.9N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 37.4N 62.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 39.0N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 44.5N 41.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0000Z 51.0N 18.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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