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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 55
2017-09-29 22:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 292034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 ...MARIA CONTINUES RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.8N 57.4W ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 57.4 West. Maria is moving toward the east-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this heading with an increase in forward speed is forecast during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is forecast to become extratropical between 24 and 36 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Advisory Number 55
2017-09-29 22:34:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 292034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 57.4W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 220SE 220SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 360SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 57.4W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 59.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 39.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 220SE 230SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 41.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 220SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 44.0N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 47.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 57.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics
2017-09-29 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2017 14:45:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2017 15:33:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 54
2017-09-29 16:40:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 291439 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Although Maria is trying to race east-northeastward ahead of a cold front, satellite images indicate that cold air is already beginning to entrain into the circulation of the tropical cyclone. Most of deep convection is limited to a curved band to the east of the center and an average of Dvorak estimates indicate that the maximum winds are still 50 kt. The winds could increase a little due to baroclinic forcing later today while Maria acquires extratropical characteristics. Maria should become post-tropical in about 36 hours, and then dissipate or be absorbed by a larger cyclone around day 3. Maria is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and is racing toward the east-northeast at 27 kt. This steering pattern is forecast to persist, and Maria is anticipated to continue on this track with an increase in forward speed until dissipation. The NHC forecast uses guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and is also in very good agreement with track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 37.5N 60.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 38.6N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 40.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 43.5N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1200Z 46.5N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 54
2017-09-29 16:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 291438 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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