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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 52
2017-09-29 04:43:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290243 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 The satellite presentation of Maria has degraded over the past 12 hours or so, with the area of deep convection decreasing in coverage and becoming displaced to the east of the center due to some westerly shear. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, while the UW-CIMSS ADT is 50-55 kt. Based on the latter, the initial wind speed is maintained at 55 kt for this advisory. Maria is beginning to accelerate eastward, with an initial motion estimate of 080/15 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to turn east-northeastward on Friday ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough. Maria should continue to accelerate east-northeastward to northeast over the north Atlantic on Saturday before it is absorbed by a frontal boundary over the northeastern Atlantic. The track guidance continues to be tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Maria is forecast to change little in intensity over the next day or so while it moves over marginal SSTs and remains in low to moderate shear conditions. After that time, baroclinic forcing and the rapid forward speed of the cyclone should again help Maria maintain its intensity until it completes extratropical transition in about 48 hours. The global models indicate that the extratropical low will weaken over the northeastern Atlantic by day 72 h, and be absorbed by a frontal system by day 4. The post-tropical intensity and wind radii forecasts at 48 and 72 h are based on guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 37.1N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 37.5N 61.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 39.1N 55.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 41.5N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 44.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0000Z 50.0N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 52
2017-09-29 04:43:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 290242 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-29 04:42:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA ACCELERATING EASTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 28 the center of Maria was located near 37.1, -65.5 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 52
2017-09-29 04:42:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290242 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 ...MARIA ACCELERATING EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.1N 65.5W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 65.5 West. Maria is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h), and the storm is expected to accelerate eastward through tonight. A turn back toward the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Advisory Number 52
2017-09-29 04:41:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290241 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 65.5W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 200SE 160SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 270SE 270SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 65.5W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 66.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 61.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 210SE 170SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.1N 55.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 80SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 220SE 180SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 220SE 200SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 44.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 220SE 200SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 50.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 220SE 150SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 65.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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