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Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-29 16:38:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 29 the center of Maria was located near 37.5, -60.1 with movement ENE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 54

2017-09-29 16:38:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 291438 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 ...MARIA RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.5N 60.1W ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 60.1 West. Maria is moving toward the east-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is expected to acquire extratropical characteristics late Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Advisory Number 54

2017-09-29 16:38:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 291437 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 60.1W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 210SE 220SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 60.1W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.6N 55.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 220SE 230SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 40.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 230SE 240SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 46.5N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 300SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 60.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics

2017-09-29 10:53:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2017 08:53:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2017 08:53:20 GMT

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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 53

2017-09-29 10:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290846 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Maria is producing a relatively small cluster of deep convection that is displaced to the east of the center due to 15 kt of westerly shear. Scatterometer data from last evening showed some 45-kt wind vectors south of the center, so Maria's initial intensity is estimated to be 50 kt, accounting for the low resolution of the ASCAT instruments. Maria will continue to move over waters of at least 26 degrees Celsius for at least the next 24-36 hours, although vertical shear will be increasing over the cyclone fairly soon. The first stages of extratropical transition are likely to begin later today, and baroclinic forcing could allow Maria to regain a little bit of strength, which is shown by both the GFS and ECMWF models over the next couple of days. Maria should be fully extratropical by 48 hours and then be absorbed within a frontal zone a little after 72 hours. Some of the global models, such as the GFS and UKMET, show this absorption occurring sooner than that. Maria is accelerating eastward within the mid-latitude westerlies with an initial motion of 085/18 kt. The cyclone should turn east-northeastward later today, ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving off the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada coast, with acceleration continuing up until the time Maria dissipates. Although the ECMWF model is an outlier and has a slower solution compared to the other guidance, the NHC track forecast remains close to the other models and the various consensus aids. The post-tropical intensity and wind radii forecasts at 48 and 72 h are based on guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 37.2N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 37.9N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 39.8N 52.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 42.1N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 45.0N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0600Z 51.4N 16.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Berg

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