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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Advisory Number 56

2017-09-30 04:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300233 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 53.9W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 220SE 220SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 390SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 53.9W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 55.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 40.1N 48.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 220SE 230SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 42.7N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 220SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 45.6N 34.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 48.0N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 210SE 210SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 53.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Maria Graphics

2017-09-29 22:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2017 20:44:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2017 20:44:45 GMT

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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 55

2017-09-29 22:36:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 292036 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 The cloud pattern has deteriorated and the only convection left is is a curved band of thunderstorms to the east of the center. Latest SSMI microwave data clearly indicate that the low- and mid- level centers are rapidly becoming separated. However, Dvorak estimates still call for an initial intensity of 50 kt at this time. Cold air continues to entrain into the cyclone and Maria has probably already began to acquire extratropical characteristics. Given the cold water along the forecast track, Maria will probably become extratropical in about 36 hours or even sooner. The track is straightforward since the cyclone is well embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. This flow pattern will continue to steer Maria on a general east-northeast track with increasing forward speed until dissipation over the cold waters of the North Atlantic. The NHC forecast incorporates guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 37.8N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 39.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 41.5N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 44.0N 38.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1800Z 47.5N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 55

2017-09-29 22:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 292035 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 55 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-29 22:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...MARIA CONTINUES RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THIS WEEKEND... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 29 the center of Maria was located near 37.8, -57.4 with movement ENE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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