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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35

2017-09-24 22:54:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 242054 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) X(22) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 6(28) 1(29) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20) X(20) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 6(32) X(32) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 20(32) 6(38) X(38) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 21(35) 6(41) X(41) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 23(39) 7(46) X(46) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 23(44) 7(51) X(51) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 2(15) X(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 13(24) 4(28) X(28) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 7( 7) 15(22) 25(47) 20(67) 5(72) X(72) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 5(27) X(27) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 16(29) 17(46) 5(51) X(51) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 6( 7) 11(18) 20(38) 18(56) 5(61) X(61) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 17(33) 17(50) 5(55) X(55) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 10(22) 13(35) 4(39) X(39) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 12(30) 3(33) X(33) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 7(18) 11(29) 3(32) X(32) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 9(21) 2(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 7(17) 2(19) X(19) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-24 22:54:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 the center of Maria was located near 29.4, -73.0 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 941 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 35

2017-09-24 22:54:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 242054 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 73.0W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout northward to Duck. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected to begin by Monday night or Tuesday. Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 941 mb (27.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 35

2017-09-24 22:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 242053 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 73.0W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 73.0W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.3N 73.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.4N 73.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.6N 73.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.0N 73.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.8N 71.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 37.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 73.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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