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Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-09-25 05:17:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:17:52 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-09-25 04:45:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:45:52 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-25 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 02:41:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 03:29:38 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 36
2017-09-25 04:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250234 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Hurricane Hunter observations indicate that Maria has weakened. Using a blend of flight-level winds and SFMR-observed surface winds along with a dropsonde in the northeast eyewall of the hurricane, the current intensity is set at 80 kt. Observations from a NOAA aircraft indicate that the SSTs beneath Maria are on the order of 24-25 deg C, which has probably contributed to the decrease of intensity. These relatively cool waters are likely due to mixing and upwelling from slow-moving Hurricane Jose, which traversed the area a little over a week ago. Gradual weakening is anticipated for the next few days, and the official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model consensus. Maria is expected to remain a hurricane for at least the next few days, however. Based on a number of center fixes from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters, the motion is northward at a slightly slower speed, or 360/7 kt. Maria is being steered by the flow between a mid-level cyclone near the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. A mid-level ridge over the northeastern U.S. will likely cause Maria's forward motion to slow some more over the next couple of days. The global models predict that this ridge will break down by 72 hours, and this should allow Maria to turn to the right as it begins to approach the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the left edge of the numerical guidance, in deference to the reliable ECMWF which is the westernmost of the model tracks. Maria is a large hurricane, so it could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the North Carolina coast in a couple of days, even if its center remains well offshore. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North Carolina. 2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North Carolina Outer Banks. 3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid- Atlantic coast tonight or on Monday. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of the week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 30.0N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 30.8N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 31.9N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 33.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 33.9N 73.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 35.2N 72.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 36.5N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 38.0N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2017-09-25 04:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 250233 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) X(17) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 4(23) X(23) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 5(26) X(26) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 12(26) 4(30) X(30) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 13(29) 4(33) X(33) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 14(32) 4(36) 1(37) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) 15(37) 3(40) 1(41) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 7(19) 2(21) X(21) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 7( 9) 20(29) 18(47) 14(61) 3(64) X(64) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 2(17) X(17) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 6( 7) 9(16) 11(27) 11(38) 2(40) X(40) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 5( 8) 16(24) 13(37) 11(48) 2(50) X(50) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 6( 8) 12(20) 11(31) 11(42) 2(44) X(44) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 1 5( 6) 8(14) 8(22) 8(30) 1(31) X(31) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 7(25) 1(26) X(26) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 6(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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