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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 57
2017-09-30 10:37:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300837 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 Despite now being over sea surface temperatures of around 25 degrees Celsius, Maria is producing a persistent cluster of deep convection that is displaced to the east of the center due to 15 kt of west-northwesterly shear. Satellite imagery shows cold advection occurring within the western part of the cyclone's circulation behind an approaching cold front, heralding the beginning of Maria's extratropical transition. Based on global model guidance, this transition should be complete within 24 hours, and Maria's intensity is unlikely to change much up until that time due to baroclinic forcing. The extratropical low is likely to gradually weaken after 24 hours and become absorbed within a frontal zone by day 3, if not sooner. Maria is accelerating east-northeastward in the flow ahead of a positively tilted trough moving off the northeastern coast of North America, and the initial motion estimate is 070/28 kt. The trough should continue steering Maria even faster toward the east-northeast for the next couple of days. The GFS is significantly faster than the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models since it shows Maria becoming absorbed by the front much sooner. The NHC track forecast remains close to the latter models and is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts during Maria's post-tropical stages. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 39.6N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 41.3N 45.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 43.8N 38.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1800Z 46.6N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0600Z 48.9N 20.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-30 10:36:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 30 the center of Maria was located near 39.6, -50.5 with movement ENE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 57
2017-09-30 10:36:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300836 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 ...MARIA BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.6N 50.5W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 50.5 West. Maria is moving toward the east-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h), and this heading with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue through early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Maria is expected to become an extratropical low later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 57
2017-09-30 10:36:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 300836 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Advisory Number 57
2017-09-30 10:35:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 50.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 200SE 200SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 420SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 50.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 52.2W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 41.3N 45.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 200SE 190SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 43.8N 38.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 210SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 46.6N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 48.9N 20.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 210SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 50.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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