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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-09-05 01:10:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 042310 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A well-defined low pressure system is located about 100 miles south of the the southern coast of Mexico. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced well to the west of the low. Although upper-level winds are forecast to inhibit further development during the next couple of days, only a small increase in thunderstorm activity near the surface center of circulation could result in the formation of a tropical depression. This system is expected to move generally west-northwestward, near or along the southern coast of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of development, this system could produce locally heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Please consult products from your local office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics

2020-09-04 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2020 20:34:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2020 21:24:55 GMT

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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 17

2020-09-04 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042033 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Omar continues to hang on as a tropical depression. The cyclone is producing a small area of thunderstorms to the south of the center, enough to continue writing advisories on this system for now. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. Omar has been more resistant than expected to the ongoing northerly wind shear, but the models insist that the continued shear, dry air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay to a remnant low this evening or early Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday night. The tropical depression is still moving eastward at about 5 kt. An approaching deep-layer trough should cause Omar to turn north- northeastward tonight and then accelerate in that direction until it dissipates over the northern central Atlantic this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 35.3N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 36.2N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 38.0N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2020-09-04 22:33:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 042033 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)

2020-09-04 22:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...OMAR HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 4 the center of Omar was located near 35.3, -57.3 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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