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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-08-14 19:42:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 141742 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with the low pressure area located about 300 miles south-southwest of Nantucket, Massachusetts has become better organized. In addition, recent satellite wind data show that the circulation is becoming better defined, with winds to near gale force to the southeast of the center. If current trends continue, a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. Regardless of development, this system is expected to move east-northeastward well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. Additional information can be found in High Sea High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-08-14 19:41:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 141740 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E, located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is located about 200 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have decreased since last night. However, environmental conditions are still expected to be favorable for another day or so and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to move over colder waters over the weekend and further development is unlikely after that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Another area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure is located nearly 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for the development of this system and it will likely become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northward during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms just offshore of the Pacific coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for a low pressure system to develop from this trough over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: north weather pacific eastern

 
 

Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics

2020-08-14 16:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 14:42:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 15:24:35 GMT

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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2020-08-14 16:41:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 141441 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)

2020-08-14 16:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOSEPHINE THIS AFTERNOON... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 14 the center of Josephine was located near 16.1, -54.7 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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