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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-14 07:24:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 140524 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. A broad area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina is forecast to move east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces over the next several days. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-14 04:36:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 02:36:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 02:36:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-14 04:36:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 02:36:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 02:36:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-14 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 Enhanced infrared GOES 16 imagery and a recent ASCAT-A overpass indicated that the center of circulation is still located to the south of a rather shapeless deep convective mass. Recent images show a small burst developing just to the west of the center, but the associated cloud tops are already warming. Based on the overall cloud pattern, light southerly shear and a dry, relatively stable surrounding environment continue to hamper significant development. There were no changes to the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is once again held at a possibly generous 40 kt. Josephine's relatively small window of opportunity for further strengthening is within the next 18 to 24 hours. The forecast still shows a peak intensity of 50 kt at the time and is above all of the skilled guidance. After which, strong southwesterly shear produced by a northeast to southwest oriented deep-layer mid-Atlantic trough is expected to induce gradual weakening. This inhibiting upper wind pattern is forecast to affect the cyclone through day 5. The NHC forecast through 60 hours is based on the better performing IVCN consensus which consists of the Decay SHIPS, LGEM and the hurricane models. Beyond mid-period, the forecast is basically a blend of the IVCN and the global models which now shows Josephine degenerating into a remnant low at day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt within the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high situated to the northeast of Josephine. Weakening of the western portion of the ridge should cause Josephine to turn northwestward in 3 days, followed by a turn generally northward at day 4 in response to a major shortwave trough approaching the east coast of the U.S. and the western Atlantic. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one through 5 days and is once again close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus model. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 14.8N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.8N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.8N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 20.0N 62.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 21.3N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 22.8N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 26.0N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 29.5N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-14 04:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 274 WTPZ45 KNHC 140234 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Since the issuance of the previous NHC advisory, deep convection associated with the depression has waned and become separated from the low-level center due to modest northeasterly shear. This has resulted in the low-level center becoming exposed. With the recent loss of organization, Dvorak data T-numbers have decreased and a blend of the various estimates yields an initial wind speed of 30 kt. The dynamical model guidance suggests that moderate to strong shear will continue to plague the cyclone during the next 2 to 3 days, and the intensity guidance is not quite as bullish as before. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in strength during that time. It still remains possible, however, that new bursts of convection could allow the depression to cross the tropical storm threshold. After 72 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease but less favorable thermodynamic conditions are expected to prevent strengthening. The new forecast calls for the depression to degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period, but this could occur much sooner if the shear persists and the depression is unable to generate persistent convection. The depression is moving westward or 270/4 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system is expected to steer the cyclone slowly west-southwestward during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the depression is forecast to meander generally northwestward. The latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a slower motion of the cyclone between days 2-5, and the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward to account for this model trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 14.2N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 14.1N 131.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 13.7N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 13.7N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 13.9N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 14.4N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 14.8N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 14.9N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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