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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-14 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 140234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 4(17) 2(19) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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tropical
Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-14 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 52.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 52.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 54.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.8N 59.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.0N 62.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.8N 66.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 26.0N 67.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.5N 66.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 52.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-14 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 140233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 131.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 131.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 130.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.1N 131.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.9N 132.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.7N 133.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.7N 133.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.9N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 134.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 134.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 14.9N 134.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 131.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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advisory
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depression
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-14 01:16:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
607 ABPZ20 KNHC 132316 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E, located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues in association with a surface trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Even though this system has been slow to organize, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two before the system reaches cooler waters later this weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from the west-central coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A trough of low pressure is located just offshore the Pacific coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for a low to develop from this trough over the next couple of days, and and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Brown
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weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-14 01:10:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 132310 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. A broad area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina is forecast to move east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces over the next several days. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves over warm sea surface temperatures of the Gulf Stream. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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