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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-07 13:22:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 071122 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Jul 7 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with an elongated area of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days while it moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent gradual development this weekend while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-07 10:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jul 2020 08:32:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jul 2020 09:24:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-07 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070831 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center of Cristina and in curved bands over the western portion of the circulation. An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0430 UTC showed maximum winds of around 35 kt. Based on that data and Dvorak estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. Cristina is expected to strengthen during the next few days due to the favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear and warm SSTs, and its developing compact inner core as observed in satellite data. The only limiting factor is some dry air that has entrained into the eastern portion of the circulation. However, given the largely conducive conditions for strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance during the next 3 days. Although it is not explicitly forecast, rapid intensification could occur sometime during the next couple of days. Cristina will likely be moving over SSTs below 26 C and into a drier and more stable air mass late this week and this weekend, and that should induce a weakening trend. This intensity forecast is mostly an update of the previous one and in best agreement with corrected consensus model HCCA. Satellite fixes indicate that Cristina is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning is fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen in place during the next several days. This should keep Cristina on a west-northwestward path well offshore of Mexico through the remainder of the week and into this weekend. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 11.5N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 12.2N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 13.3N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 14.3N 108.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 16.3N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 18.9N 117.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-07 10:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 the center of Cristina was located near 11.5, -102.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 3
2020-07-07 10:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070831 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 ...CRISTINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.5N 102.4W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 102.4 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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