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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-05 19:27:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 051727 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. Recent satellite and radar observations indicate that a small low pressure system has formed within a broader area of low pressure near the northern Gulf Coast. The low is producing a few showers near its center, and some slight development is possible before it moves inland early Monday. The broader low pressure system is forecast to move northeastward and could emerge offshore of the Carolinas later this week, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Five Graphics
2020-07-05 16:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Jul 2020 14:36:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Jul 2020 14:36:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-07-05 16:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051434 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 The depression is accelerating northeastward, away from Bermuda. It continues to produce deep convection primarily to the south of its center with little change in organization since yesterday. The most recent TAFB Dvorak classification supports maintaining the intensity at 30 kt. Scatterometer data that will likely arrive after the issuance of this advisory may provide more information about the current surface wind structure of the cyclone. No substantial changes were made to the NHC forecast. The cyclone will continue to accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or two. It is possible that the depression could open into a trough at some point today as its forward speed increases, but most of the dynamical guidance indicates it will persist long enough to undergo extratropical transition on Monday. Minimal strengthening is possible today as the forward speed of the depression increases and it begins to get some positive baroclinic support. In fact, nearly all of the global models indicate that the system will produce tropical-storm-force winds around the time it becomes fully extratropical, and this is reflected in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 34.5N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 36.6N 59.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 39.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 42.5N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z 45.8N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Five (AT5/AL052020)
2020-07-05 16:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Jul 5 the center of Five was located near 34.5, -63.0 with movement NE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 5
2020-07-05 16:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051433 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 ...DEPRESSION ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 63.0W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 63.0 West. The depression is moving quickly toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the depression will accelerate away from Bermuda today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today. The depression could become a tropical storm today or tonight before it becomes post-tropical on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty winds associated with Tropical Depression Five in and around Bermuda should decrease through the afternoon. For more information please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. RAIN: Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of less than 1 inch with possible isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches in Bermuda. Showers associated with the depression should decrease through the afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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