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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-07 01:24:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 062324 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard, located several hundred miles southeast of Newfoundland. A low pressure area centered inland over southern Georgia is forecast to move northeastward near the coast of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic during the next few days. Some development of this system is possible if the system moves over water in two or three days. Regardless of development, the low is forecast to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding across portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A fast-moving tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance has become less organized today, and development is not expected. The wave is forecast to move through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds on some of those islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-07 01:19:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 062318 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Five-E, located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is still possible over the next several days while it moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent gradual development this weekend while the system moves westward well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics
2020-07-06 22:40:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 20:40:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 21:31:59 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-07-06 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 100W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 55(59) 6(65) X(65) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 5(46) X(46) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-06 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 208 WTPZ45 KNHC 062038 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 Satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated with the low pressure area south of Mexico has become significantly better organized since this morning. ASCAT data from earlier this afternoon suggested that the circulation was still somewhat elongated, but since that time low cloud motions indicate that the circulation has become better defined. The scatterometer data also revealed believable wind vectors of at least 30 kt, with higher rain-inflated vectors within the deep convection. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression at this time. The depression is located within a favorable environment consisting of low vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere. As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated over the next several days, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids IVCN and HCCA, but is not quite as bullish as the SHIPS guidance. Given the anticipated low wind shear conditions over the next few days, a period of rapid strengthening is possible, and this intensity forecast could be somewhat conservative. The cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters in about 96 hours, which should cause weakening by the end of the period. Since the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. The depression is being steered west-northwestward to the south of a large mid-level ridge located over the south-central United States. A general west-northwestward heading about around the same forward speed is expected over the next several days. The dynamical model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 10.5N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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