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Tropical Storm Edouard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-07-06 04:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 060236 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0300 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-07-06 04:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 060235 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0300 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 56.9W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 56.9W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 58.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.6N 51.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.9N 44.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 46.5N 37.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 56.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-06 01:49:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 052349 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A broad low pressure system located several hundred miles south and south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-06 01:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 052339 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. A small low pressure system is located over the northern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of Panama City, Florida. While the low currently has limited thunderstorm activity, some development is still possible before it moves inland early Monday. This system is expected to evolve into a larger low pressure system and move northeastward, possibly emerging offshore of the Carolinas later this week where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A strong tropical wave, centered about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible on Monday before environmental conditions become hostile for development on Tuesday. The wave is forecast to move through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty winds on some of those islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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atlantic
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tropical
Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-07-05 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 052032 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 The depressions cloud pattern has become less organized today, with increasing separation between the remaining convective activity and the low-level center. The circulation also appears to be less defined, but the various ASCAT instruments missed the center late this morning and were not helpful in determining if a well-defined center still exits. Data from the ASCAT-C instrument revealed some 25-30 kt wind vectors over the southeastern portion of the system, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression is moving northeastward or 055/23 kt. The system should continue to accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. Given the expected acceleration and current structure, it would not be surprising if the system degenerated into a trough of low pressure later today or tonight. The depression or its remnants, however, are forecast to transition into an extratropical cyclone on Monday. Little change in strength is forecast although it is possible that the system will produce tropical-storm-force winds by the time it becomes extratropical on Monday as it accelerates and gains some baroclinic support. Only slight adjustments were made to the previous NHC track and intensity forecast, and the new official forecast is near the middle of the dynamical model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 35.8N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 37.9N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 41.1N 48.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1800Z 48.0N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
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depression
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