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Tropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 3
2020-07-05 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 050237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE PAST BERMUDA OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 66.3W ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 66.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move to the north of Bermuda overnight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, although the system still could become a tropical storm during that time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Depression Five could cause gusty conditions on Bermuda and over the nearby waters later tonight. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Gale Warning. For more information please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. RAIN: Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of less than 1 inch with possible isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches in Bermuda. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-07-05 04:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 050237 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0300 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-05 04:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0300 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 66.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 66.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 67.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 59.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.7N 53.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 66.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-05 01:21:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 042321 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Jul 4 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-05 01:12:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
824 ABNT20 KNHC 042312 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located less than 200 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. Disorganized cloudiness and showers over the far northern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a nearly stationary surface trough. Some slight development of this system is possible before the trough moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. The system is then forecast to move northeastward and emerge offshore of the Carolinas on Wednesday, where enviromental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Blake
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