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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-07-06 16:41:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 618 WTNT25 KNHC 061441 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 50.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 50.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 51.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 43.2N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 46.7N 37.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 53.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.8N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-06 13:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 061131 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland. A small low pressure system has moved inland over the Florida panhandle. The small low is forecast to evolve into a larger low pressure system and move northeastward, near the coast of the Carolinas. Since the low is currently over land, no development is expected today or tomorrow. However, some development will be possible if the system moves back over water on Wednesday or Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Some slight development of this system is possible today before environmental conditions become hostile for development on Tuesday. The wave is forecast to move through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds on some of those islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-06 13:24:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 061124 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Jul 6 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, have increased in coverage overnight. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two or three days while the system moves west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or two while it moves slowly westward. After that time, further development of this system is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Edouard Graphics
2020-07-06 10:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 08:47:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 09:24:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-06 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060845 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard is comprised of an exposed swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with a strong cluster of convection over the northeastern quadrant. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt, and the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 35 kt. Due to the rapid motion, it is possible that the system no longer has a closed circulation. However, there is not enough evidence of this to justify stopping advisories at this time. The initial motion is quickly northeastward or 055/31. Edouard is embedded in strong southwesterly mid-latitude flow, and a fast motion toward the northeast should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The new track forecast is little changed from the previous forecast, and it lies near the center of the tightly clustered model guidance. The cyclone is located in a region of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, is heading for colder water, and is approaching a frontal system. This combination should lead to extratropical transition between 12-24 h, and it is possible that Edouard could strengthen a little as transition occurs. After transition, the extratropical low should persist for another 24 h or so before the circulation dissipates. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 39.0N 53.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 41.3N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 44.7N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/1800Z 48.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0600Z 51.6N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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