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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-06 07:27:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 060527 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. A small low pressure system is located near the coast of the Florida Panhandle between Panama City and Apalachicola. The associated thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and significant development appears unlikely before the low moves inland during the next several hours. This system is expected to evolve into a larger low pressure system and move northeastward, possibly emerging offshore of the Carolinas later this week where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A strong tropical wave, centered about 650 miles east of the Windward Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible today before environmental conditions become hostile for development on Tuesday. The wave is forecast to move through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty winds on some of those islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Edouard Graphics
2020-07-06 04:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 02:39:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 02:39:10 GMT
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edouard
Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-06 04:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 773 WTNT45 KNHC 060238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large convective burst causing a better-defined low-level circulation. While the center is now becoming exposed due to southwesterly shear, the maximum winds have almost certainly increased from earlier, so the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. A recent partial ASCAT pass of at least 30 kt outside the RMW also supports the upgrade to a tropical storm, and the CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON) is even higher than the analyzed intensity. Edouard is moving northeastward even faster than before, or 055/30 kt. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on a quick northeastward or east-northeastward motion for the next couple of days before the system degenerates into a trough. Extratropical transition is anticipated by 24 hours due to forcing from a middle-latitude trough and a frontal boundary. Some minor strengthening of Edouard due to the transition process is possible over the next day or so before the global models show a gradual weakening. The track forecast has been adjusted a bit faster to account for the latest guidance and initial forward speed, and the intensity forecast has also been nudged upward to account for the current wind speed. Edouard is the earliest known 5th named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Emily on July 12, 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 37.2N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 39.6N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 42.9N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/1200Z 46.5N 37.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Edouard (AT5/AL052020)
2020-07-06 04:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Jul 5 the center of Edouard was located near 37.2, -56.9 with movement NE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Edouard Public Advisory Number 7
2020-07-06 04:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 060236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 ...EDOUARD FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 56.9W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 56.9 West. Edouard is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and an even faster motion in that general direction is anticipated during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little significant change in strength is forecast before Edouard is forecast to become post-tropical on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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