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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-07-04 22:30:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 042030 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.3W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.3W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 33.1N 65.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 35.3N 61.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 41.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 44.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 67.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-04 19:12:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 041712 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 4 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of southern Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-04 19:05:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 041705 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed Tropical Depression Five, located a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Five Graphics
2020-07-04 16:52:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Jul 2020 14:52:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Jul 2020 14:52:29 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-04 16:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041451 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 Late yesterday, a small low pressure system developed near the end of a boundary over the western Atlantic. The low persisted overnight while producing convection that has shown increasing signs of organization. Although the low's center has recently become obscured, earlier one-minute visible imagery confirmed that it is well-defined. The system therefore meets the necessary criteria to be designated as a tropical cyclone. A TAFB Dvorak classification of 2.0 is the basis for the 30 kt initial intensity. The depression is moving quickly toward the east-northeast, caught in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its south and a a trough to its north. This steering pattern is expected to be fairly stable for the next day or so, and the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will continue on its current general heading with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast closely follows the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. The depression has a sheared appearance, with no convection northwest of its low-level center. A combination of strong upper-level westerly winds and dry mid-level air to the northwest are likely the cause of this, and it is unlikely that the cyclone will get much better organized during the next day or two. That said, some minimal strengthening is possible, even if only due to the expected increase of the cyclone's forward speed. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a consensus of the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models. It is worth noting that the statistical guidance indicates more strengthening is possible, but this is not currently supported by any dynamical models. There is less agreement on the system's future beyond the weekend. It could open into a trough and dissipate or persist long enough to undergo extratropical transition. Since this is the first advisory, the official forecast is somewhat conservative and maintains the system as a closed low for 60 h, but it could certainly dissipate sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 31.1N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 32.1N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 36.4N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 39.2N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 41.7N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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