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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 9
2021-08-05 04:39:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050239 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 ...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 136.2W ABOUT 1790 MI...2885 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 136.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm tonight, but weakening is forecast to begin late Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-05 04:39:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050239 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-05 04:38:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 136.2W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 136.2W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 136.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 136.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.9N 137.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.8N 138.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.8N 140.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.8N 142.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 136.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-05 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 02:36:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 02:36:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 22
2021-08-05 04:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Hilda's satellite appearance has changed little over the past several hours. Small bursts of moderate to deep convection persist in the eastern semicircle of the system, and the low-level center is still partially exposed to the west of the convective cloud mass. Without any recent scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with a T2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB. A subtropical ridge over the eastern North Pacific continues to steer Hilda west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a slight westward turn on Friday as the shallow cyclone becomes steered by a low-level ridge to its north. While most of the models show limited interaction between Hilda and TD Nine-E to its southwest, it is worth noting that the GFS moves both Nine-E and Hilda much farther northward than the rest of the guidance. The GFS solution is not favored at this time, and the latest NHC track forecast remains very similar to the previous one and lies near the multi-model guidance consensus. Hilda is not expected to remain a tropical storm for much longer. As sea surface temperatures decrease along its track and the cyclone moves into a drier, more stable environment, it will become increasingly difficult for Hilda to sustain organized convection near its center. The latest NHC forecast calls for Hilda to weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday and degenerate to a 25-kt remnant low on Friday morning. Then, the global models agree that the system should open into a trough and dissipate by Saturday morning well east of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 19.6N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 20.2N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 21.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 22.6N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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