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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-05 07:40:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 050540 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave just inland over Africa is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Guinea Highlands. This wave is expected to move off the west African coast later today. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form over the eastern tropical Atlantic by early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-05 07:39:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 050538 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 4 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hilda, located a little over 1200 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression Nine-E, located almost 1800 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2021-08-05 04:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 02:40:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 02:40:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-05 04:40:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 The system has not become noticeably better organized since earlier today, with a small area of deep convection near the center and some slightly curved bands of convection well removed to the east and northeast of the center. Microwave imagery also suggests little change in structure. The current intensity is held at 30 kt for now, in agreement with earlier scatterometer observations. Although the center fixes have some scatter, my best estimate for motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone is forecast to be maintained for the next 48-72 hours. This should keep the system on a generally northwestward heading until late in the forecast period. By that time, the weakening cyclone should turn a little to the left following the low-level environmental winds. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and just to the right of the multi-model consensus, in slight deference to the GFS solution which is even farther to the right of these tracks. Since the system should be in a fairly moist, low-shear environment for the next day or so, at least some slight strengthening seems likely. Thereafter, cooler SSTs and increased shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or above most of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.3N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 136.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 16.9N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 17.8N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 18.8N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 19.8N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0000Z 22.0N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-05 04:39:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 5:00 PM HST Wed Aug 4 the center of Nine-E was located near 15.3, -136.2 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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