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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2021-08-04 16:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 041433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 4 19(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-04 14:16:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 041215 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 Corrected order of disturbances For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A small and weak area of low pressure, with limited shower and thunderstorm activity, is passing near the Cabo Verde Islands. Significant development of this system is not expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move northward or north-northwestward over cooler waters, ending its development chances. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and into early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for some slow development over the far eastern Atlantic through the weekend into early next week while the system moves generally westward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-04 13:27:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 041127 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Aug 4 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hilda, located more than 1000 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Shower activity, in association with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E, located more than 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. By late Thursday, further development is not expected as the system is forecast to move over cooler waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development this weekend while the system remains offshore and moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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eastern
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-08-04 10:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040847 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Hilda continues to weaken tonight. For a 12 h period, the low-level circulation was mostly devoid of deep convection, though recently a few convective cells are redeveloping south of the estimated center. Unfortunately, there has not been any recent scatterometer data to help determine the storm's intensity. The current initial intensity of Hilda is set to a possibly generous 40 kt for this advisory, blending the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, in addition to the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate. Further weakening is forecast, as Hilda is now moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 C, though some residual mid-level moisture may allow for sporadic convective bursts to occur for the next 24-36 hours. By 48 hours, the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models all agree Hilda will lose any remaining organized convection and become a remnant low, with this low opening up to a trough this weekend, well east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Now that Hilda is becoming an increasingly shallow cyclone, the storm is beginning to bend slightly to the left, now moving to the west-northwest at 300/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north and east of Hilda is expected to build in further over the next several days, and should allow the cyclone to turn a bit more westward at a slightly faster motion by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one, and remains near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.9N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 20.4N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 21.3N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z 22.6N 136.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-04 10:41:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 08:41:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 09:22:38 GMT
Tags: graphics
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