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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-04 07:39:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 040538 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 4 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A small and weak area of low pressure, with limited shower and thunderstorm activity, is passing near the Cabo Verde Islands. Significant development of this system is not expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds and marginally warm waters. Afterwards, this system is forecast to move northward or north-northwestward over cooler waters, ending its development chances. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for some slow development over the far eastern Atlantic through the weekend into early next week while this system moves generally westward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-04 04:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 02:37:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 02:37:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-04 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040236 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Hilda is a weakening tropical cyclone. Its low-level center is now exposed in visible satellite imagery, and infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed as the system is currently not producing any deep convection. Despite this lack of convection, earlier scatterometer data revealed several 45-kt wind vectors in the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory, which is supported by a blend of the final-T numbers and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. continues to steer Hilda northwestward at around 7 kt. As the vortex spins down and becomes vertically shallow, Hilda is expected to turn west-northwestward and accelerate a bit as a low-level ridge builds westward across the eastern Pacific. The official NHC track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and lies close to the multi-model consensus. Hilda is moving over cooler waters and into a more stable environment, so continued weakening is expected over the next few days. The official NHC forecast now shows Hilda weakening to a tropical depression by Thursday morning and degenerating to a remnant low soon thereafter. The remnant low is still expected to open up into a trough this weekend well east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 18.4N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.1N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 19.9N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 20.7N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1200Z 22.3N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 22.9N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-08-04 04:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-04 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA CONTINUES WEAKENING... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 3 the center of Hilda was located near 18.4, -125.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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