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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-05 01:25:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 042325 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Aug 4 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hilda, located almost 1200 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on newly redeveloped Tropical Depression Nine-E, located more than 1700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-04 22:35:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 042035 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 Satellite images today indicate that the system has been maintaining two hooking bands of convection to the north and south of the center. In addition, scatterometer data shows a well-defined, albeit a touch elongated, center and 30-kt winds. Thus, advisories are being re-started on Tropical Depression Nine-E after a 3-day hiatus, with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression probably only has a few days as a tropical cyclone again because SSTs begin to drop off in a day or so, along with increasing shear and mid-level dry air. Nine-E does have a chance to finally become a tropical storm in the meantime before the aforementioned environmental conditions get less conducive on Friday. The system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low again this weekend (or sooner) as it encounters a very hostile environment. The NHC wind speed forecast is close to the model consensus, but is a smidge higher near peak intensity, owing to the HCCA corrected-consensus guidance. The depression has been moving slowly toward the north-northwest today. A distant mid-level ridge to the northeast is providing the steering for the cyclone. This ridge should strengthen somewhat during the next few days, causing the depression to gradually turn to the northwest on Thursday and continue that motion through late week. Similar to a lot of forecasts this year, the GFS-based guidance is on the right side of the track envelope while the ECMWF and UKMET solutions lie on the left side. The official track assumes that the GFS shows a bit too deep of a tropical cyclone, and so the NHC prediction leans just west of the consensus throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.9N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.6N 136.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 16.5N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.4N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 18.4N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 19.5N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z 21.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-04 22:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 20:35:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 20:35:32 GMT
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hilda
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-08-04 22:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Convection associated with Hilda continues to weaken and shrink in areal coverage due to modest northwesterly vertical wind shear, sub-25C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and entrainment of stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds. A 1656Z partial ASCAT-A scatterometer pass revealed two 33-kt vectors in the southeastern quadrant in the radius-of-maximum winds. Even allowing for some undersampling, this indicates that Hilda is barely hanging on to tropical storm status, and the initial intensity will remain at 35 kt for this advisory. Model analyses show virtually no instability in the center of and north of Hilda right now, and with the cyclone forecast to move over even cooler water and into increasing westerly wind shear during the next 12-24 hours, a rapid decrease in both the convection and cyclone's intensity appears to be forthcoming soon. Hilda is forecast to become a depression later tonight and a remnant low on Thursday. Dissipation is expected by late Friday or Saturday well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. Hilda continues on a steady west-northwestward course or 295/08 kt. This general motion is expected to continue into Thursday, followed by a more westward motion on Friday and Saturday as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to north of Hilda on days 2 and 3. The official NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope between the tightly packed consensus track models to the north and the ECMWF model to the south. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.4N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 21.0N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 22.4N 136.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z 23.0N 138.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-04 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 4 the center of Hilda was located near 19.4, -128.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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