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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-08-04 10:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040840 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 1 16(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-04 10:40:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA WEAKENS FURTHER... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 4 the center of Hilda was located near 18.9, -126.6 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 19
2021-08-04 10:40:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040840 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 ...HILDA WEAKENS FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 126.6W ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 126.6 West. Hilda is now moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for with a slight increase in forward speed by Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hilda is forecast to become a tropical depression by early Thursday and a remnant low by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-08-04 10:39:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040839 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 126.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 126.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 126.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.3N 131.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-04 07:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 040551 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 3 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hilda, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ignacio, located about 400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Shower activity has increased near a low pressure system, associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine-E, more than 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Wednesday while the system moves northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. By late Thursday, further development is not expected as the system is forecast to move over cooler waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to develop a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development this weekend while the system remains offshore and moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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