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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 8
2021-10-01 10:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010841 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...VICTOR MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 32.3W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 32.3 West. Victor is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected today, followed by a northwestward motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening will be possible through tonight, followed by a slow weakening trend over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-10-01 10:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010841 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 32.3W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 45SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 32.3W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 31.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.4N 33.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.4N 35.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.9N 36.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.7N 38.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 28.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 32.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-10-01 10:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 010841 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-01 07:20:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 010520 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 30 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. This system is moving west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, and some slow development is possible through early Friday before it reaches an area of stronger upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-01 07:19:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 010519 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 1 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Victor, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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