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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-10-01 04:38:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 010238 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-01 04:38:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR STRENGTHENS OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 30 the center of Victor was located near 10.6, -30.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-01 01:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 302343 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located about 600 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Victor, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-01 01:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 302341 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Sep 30 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. This system is moving west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, and some slow development is possible through early Friday before it reaches an area of stronger upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-30 22:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 302042 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 Victor has been relatively steady in strength during the past several hours. Satellite images continue to show that the storm has a large circulation with numerous curved bands surrounding the center. However, recent microwave images indicate that the cyclone has yet to develop a well-defined inner core, which is likely why the system has not strengthened much despite the favorable environmental conditions. The Dvorak classifications are again unchanged and range from 35 to 45 kt, and on this basis, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Victor is still moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 12 kt. The storm is forecast to continue on that same general track for about another day as it remains on the south side of a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic. By late Friday, a mid- to upper-level low is expected to form over the central Atlantic, and that feature should erode the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend and then northward by early next week when it is forecast to move in the flow between the ridge and the low. The GFS has shifted westward this cycle and is now not far from the ECMWF track. The new NHC forecast track is nudged westward toward a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and HMON models. The standard consensus aids could be too far to the east since the latest run of the HWRF, which is a member of those models, is a significant outlier to the east. As mentioned above, although the storm has been in favorable conditions for strengthening during the past day or so, it has not taken full advantage likely due to its broad structure. The favorable environment for Victor should persist for about another 24 hours, so gradual strengthening is possible during that time period. However, by the weekend, the models show Victor moving into a region of moderate to strong southwesterly shear and a progressively drier airmass. These negative factors for the storm along with slightly cooler SSTs should cause Victor to lose strength this weekend and early next week. In fact, some of the models suggest that Victor could dissipate by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is again a little lower than the previous one, trending toward the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 9.9N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 10.6N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 11.6N 33.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 12.9N 34.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 14.5N 36.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 16.4N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 18.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 23.6N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 28.0N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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