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Tropical Storm Victor Graphics
2021-09-30 10:44:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 08:44:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 09:29:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-30 10:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300842 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 Victor is gradually getting better organized. AMSR2 microwave data from 0300 UTC showed that the low-level circulation has become more defined, with most convective banding features located west and southwest of the center. Victor's intensity is now estimated to be 40 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS around 40 kt. Victor's vector is toward the west-northwest (290 degrees) at 11 kt, and this heading should continue for the next 36 hours while the storm is located to the south a deep-layer ridge located over the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic. In about 2 days, a mid- to upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Atlantic, causing Victor to curve around the western periphery of the ridge, which gets shunted eastward between the Azores and the Canary Islands. The track models are in generally good agreement on this scenario, and most of them are clustered tightly among each other. Two notable exceptions, which are discounted at this time, are the HWRF and ECMWF models. The HWRF, which is stronger than the other models, is way off to the east, while the ECMWF lies off to the south and west, a tendency that we've observed recently with other storms in the deep tropics. The NHC track forecast is not changed much from the previous iteration and lies close to the GFS, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCA solutions. If the low-level circulation is in fact becoming better defined as shown by microwave imagery, Victor should be able to continue strengthening for the next couple of days in an environment of low vertical shear and over warm waters of roughly 28 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance during this period and continues to show Victor reaching hurricane strength in about 36 hours. Once the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low forms, strong southerly to southwesterly deep-layer shear is expected to develop over Victor and induce a weakening trend in about 3 days. The intensity forecast has been lowered a bit during the latter part of the forecast period given the trends in the intensity models, but it is not as low as the HCCA and IVCN aids. Interestingly, many of the global models suggest that the shear could be so strong that Victor might weaken to a depression or even degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 8.7N 27.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 9.4N 28.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 10.2N 30.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 11.2N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 12.6N 33.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 14.4N 35.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 16.6N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 22.0N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 27.3N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-30 10:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 300842 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-09-30 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 the center of Victor was located near 8.7, -27.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-30 10:42:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 ...VICTOR A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.7N 27.3W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 8.7 North, longitude 27.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Victor could become a hurricane on Friday. A weakening trend is expected to begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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