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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-30 04:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 492 FONT15 KNHC 300246 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-09-30 04:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 the center of Victor was located near 8.4, -26.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-30 04:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 217 WTNT35 KNHC 300246 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 ...VICTOR MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.4N 26.7W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 8.4 North, longitude 26.7 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest late Friday or Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Victor is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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victor
Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-30 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300246 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 26.7W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 26.7W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 26.2W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 8.9N 28.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 9.7N 30.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.6N 32.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.8N 33.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.4N 35.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.5N 36.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.4N 26.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-30 01:48:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
647 ABPZ20 KNHC 292348 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Sep 29 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the system moves generally westward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms, and environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development. The low is forecast to meander off the coast of southwestern Mexico today and tonight, and then move slowly toward the west-northwest at about 5 mph away from the coast of Mexico on Thursday and Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
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