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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-29 22:42:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 292042 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 25.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 25.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 25.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 8.8N 26.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 9.5N 28.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.3N 30.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.4N 32.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.8N 34.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.7N 35.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.3N 38.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 24.9N 40.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.3N 25.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-29 19:43:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 291743 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 29 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located several hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it drifts west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Peter located several hundred miles south of the coast of Newfoundland continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving northeastward over cooler waters and into a region of very strong upper-level winds, and significant development is not anticipated. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-29 19:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 291739 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 29 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms, and environmental conditions are gradually becoming less conducive for development. The low is forecast to meander off the coast of southwestern Mexico today and tonight, and then move slowly toward the west-northwest at about 5 mph away from the coast of Mexico on Thursday and Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the system moves generally westward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Twenty Graphics
2021-09-29 16:38:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Sep 2021 14:38:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Sep 2021 14:38:28 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-29 16:36:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 291436 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 The area of low pressure located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic that NHC has been monitoring has now become a tropical depression, the twentieth tropical cyclone of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Satellite images indicate that the system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that have become fairly well organized around the center. An ASCAT-A pass from a few hours ago indicated that the system now has a well-defined circulation and that the radius of maximum wind is 30-40 n mi north of the center. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and the T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The minimum pressure of 1007 mb is partially based on data from a ship report that passed near the depression. Based on satellite fixes, the depression appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. The system is currently located on the south side of a deep-layer ridge, and that feature should keep the cyclone on a west-northwest track during the next couple of days. After that time, the models show a mid- to upper-level low developing over the central tropical Atlantic, which erodes the western portion of the ridge. This change in the steering flow should cause the system to turn northwestward on Friday and then northward toward the end of the forecast period. Although the models generally agree on the evolution of the large-scale pattern, there are notable differences in the details, which leads to a fair amount of spread concerning when and where the turn to the north occurs. The GFS is farthest east while the ECMWF shows the westernmost solution. The NHC track forecast lies between those models and is near the TVCA multi-model consensus. The depression is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next 2 or 3 days. During that time period, the storm is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C waters while embedded within an airmass of high mid-level moisture and very low wind shear (less than 10 kt). Therefore, steady strengthening seems likely, and the NHC forecast brings the system to a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond a few days, however, the models show a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and a notably drier atmosphere. These unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening and promote a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 8.3N 24.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 8.8N 25.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 9.5N 27.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 10.3N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 11.2N 31.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 12.4N 33.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 14.0N 35.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.4N 38.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 24.3N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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