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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-30 19:30:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
784 ABPZ20 KNHC 301713 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 30 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. This system is moving west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, and some slow development is possible through early Friday before it reaches an area of stronger upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-30 19:16:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 301716 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Victor, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Victor Graphics
2021-09-30 16:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 14:55:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 14:55:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-30 16:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 301454 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 Victor remains a sprawling tropical storm with numerous curved bands surrounding the center. The associated convection remains most organized on the storm's west side. The latest Dvorak estimates are largely unchanged and range from 35 to 45 kt. In addition, an ASCAT-B pass from around 12Z showed maximum winds in the 35-40 kt range. Based on all of this data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The ASCAT data also showed that the wind field is quite broad with tropical-storm-force winds extending about 90 n mi north of the center. Victor is still moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 12 kt. The storm is forecast to continue on that same general track for another day or so as it remains on the south side of a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic. By late Friday, a mid- to upper-level low is expected to form over the central Atlantic, and that feature should erode the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend and then northward early next week when it is forecast to move in the flow between the ridge and the low. The model tracks have converged compared to yesterday, but the ECMWF remains the slowest and westernmost solution and the HWRF is still the easternmost model. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and lies close to the various consensus aids and is in fair agreement with the GFS. The storm has about another 36 hours in conducive environmental conditions of very low wind shear, a moist mid-level airmass, and warm 28-29 degree C SSTs. Therefore, intensification seems likely during that time period, but given the broad nature of the system's wind field, Victor will likely gain strength slowly during that time period. However, in a couple of days, the models show a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a progressively drier airmass. These negative factors for the storm along with slightly cooler SSTs should cause Victor to lose strength. In fact, some of the models suggest that Victor could dissipate by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one. It should be noted that although this forecast no longer explicitly shows Victor becoming a hurricane, it could occur in a day or two before conditions become hostile. This forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 9.5N 28.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 10.2N 30.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 11.1N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 12.4N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 13.9N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 15.7N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.9N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 23.2N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 28.0N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-30 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 301452 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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