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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty (AT5/AL202021)
2021-09-29 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 the center of Twenty was located near 8.3, -24.6 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-29 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 291435 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.3N 24.6W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 24.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-29 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 291435 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-29 16:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 291435 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 24.6W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 24.6W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 24.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 8.8N 25.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 9.5N 27.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.3N 29.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.2N 31.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.4N 33.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.0N 35.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 38.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.3N 40.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.3N 24.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-29 13:31:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 291131 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Sep 29 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions have become less conducive for development, and the chances of tropical cyclone formation are decreasing. The low is forecast to meander off the coast of southwestern Mexico today, and then move slowly toward the west-northwest at about 5 mph away from the coast of Mexico on Thursday and Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development during the next several days while the system moves generally westward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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