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Tropical Storm JULIA Public Advisory Number 9
2016-09-16 04:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 ...JULIA MILLING AROUND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 77.1W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 77.1 West. Julia is moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow and erratic motion offshore of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina is anticipated during the next 2 days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours or so, but gradual weakening is anticipated thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Advisory Number 9
2016-09-16 04:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.2N 76.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.5N 76.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 32.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 77.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm JULIA Graphics
2016-09-15 23:03:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 21:03:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 20:49:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-09-15 22:50:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 152050 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Julia and reported estimated surface winds of 35-40 kt from the SFMR instrument in the northeast quadrant, along with a central pressure of 1007 mb. The maximum flight-level winds at 850 mb were 34 kt. Based on a blend of the surface estimates and flight-level winds, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt. The aircraft reported a sharp trough extending to the east of the center, and the storm is producing vigorous convective bursts near the center and along the trough. Julia continues to move generally eastward or 085/7, possibly due to the reformation of the center caused by the convective bursts. The track guidance continues to forecast that the cyclone will slow its forward motion in the next 12 hours, after which it will move very little through 72-96 hours. Based on this premise, which so far has not come to pass, the new forecast track will keep Julia moving east for 12 hours and then show a loop from 12-96 hours. The new forecast area of meandering is about 60 n mi east of that from the previous forecast. Julia is likely to experience very strong westerly to northwesterly shear from 12-84 hours, and this is expected to cause a gradual weakening during this time. The NHC intensity forecast follows the previous one in calling for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate completely by 120 hours. If Julia survives the extended period of shear, the environment should become more favorable after 84 hours, and the system could re-intensify as forecast by the UKMET and Canadian models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 32.1N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 32.0N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 31.8N 76.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 31.5N 76.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 31.5N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 32.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z 32.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-15 22:49:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT JULIA IS AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 15 the center of JULIA was located near 32.1, -77.1 with movement E at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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