je.st
news
Tag: jose
Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 63
2017-09-21 04:55:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210255 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 There has been little overall change to Jose's cloud pattern since the previous advisory, as shallow convective bands remain over the northern and western portions of the circulation. Some of these bands are moving across portions of eastern Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. The initial intensity has been reduced to 50 kt, which is supported by earlier aircraft data and a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed peak winds of 40-45 kt Water vapor imagery shows that the trough moving over eastern Canada has now passed to the northeast of Jose. As a result, the tropical storm is beginning to slow down. Jose is foreast to meander within weak steering currents over the next day or so. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to drift westward or southwestward as a ridge builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone over the weekend. There has been little change in the track guidance, and the new NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Cool sea surface temperatures, a drier mid-level airmass, and increasing westerly shear should result in gradual weakening during the next several days. Jose is likely to lose its remaining convection and become post-tropical in about 48 hours. The global models predict dissipation in 96 to 120 h, and the new NHC forecast follows suit. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of extreme southeastern New England during the next day or two, and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 39.5N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 39.6N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 39.5N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 39.5N 68.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 39.4N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 24/0000Z 39.1N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z 39.0N 70.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
jose
storm
Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 63
2017-09-21 04:54:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 210253 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 63 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) WORCESTER MA 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) BOSTON MA 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 34 7 6(13) 5(18) 2(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) NANTUCKET MA 34 12 8(20) 6(26) 3(29) 3(32) 2(34) X(34) PROVIDENCE RI 34 2 6( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) NEW HAVEN CT 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) HARTFORD CT 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) NEW LONDON CT 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) ISLIP NY 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-21 04:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 20 the center of Jose was located near 39.5, -68.2 with movement ENE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
jose
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 63
2017-09-21 04:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210253 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 68.2W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 68.2 West. Jose is moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday. A slow westward motion should begin Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area tonight and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next several days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce the following additional rainfall accumulations through Friday: Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod...additional 1 to 2 inches. Nantucket...additional 2 to 4 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
jose
storm
Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 63
2017-09-21 04:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210251 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 63 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 68.2W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. 34 KT.......170NE 200SE 180SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 68.2W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 39.6N 67.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 39.5N 67.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...170NE 140SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 39.4N 69.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 39.1N 69.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 39.0N 70.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 68.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
jose
storm
advisory
Sites : [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] next »